Russia’s nuclear weapons announced in Belarus are a step in a strategy of intimidation aimed at Ukraine and its allies

This is a chronicle of the announced rearmament. And not anyone. In a video broadcast on Telegram on Thursday, May 25, while attending a regional summit in Moscow, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that “The transfer of atomic charges [russes] that[vait] start” in its territory. Without further details or confirmation from the Kremlin. It is enough to further increase the fear of nuclear escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

Since 1991 and the collapse of the USSR, Moscow has never deployed nuclear weapons outside its borders. But this is not the first time that the scenario of deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons stockpiles in Belarus, that is, weapons containing the so-called On March 25, the Russian president already made a statement on the traditional TV interview “Moscow, Kremlin, Putin”, which meant the construction of a tactical nuclear weapons storage center in Belarus by July.

This week, Russia’s Defense Ministry said only that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin had signed the deal. “Documents describing the process of storing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in a special facility in the Republic of Belarus”. Without saying more about the possible transfer of nuclear warheads.

pressure on the United States

As Tiffaine de Champsnel of the military school’s Institute for Strategic Studies on Nuclear Arms Control reminds us, the fact that Russia regularly poses nuclear threats can be interpreted as an intimidation strategy aimed at actors supporting Ukraine. And the counterattack promised by Kiev is inevitable.

“The installation of these capabilities on the territory of Belarus, even without nuclear warheads, can be understood against the background of the events that are observed on the conventional ground. In case of difficulty, Russia could try to pressure Ukraine by diffusing the nuclear threat. says the researcher. Russia can also hope that this pressure will be reinforced by the interventions of other states asking Ukraine to refrain from further nuclear escalation. »

Finally, it could try to create divisions within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), some of whose members are Belarus’ immediate neighbors and may be less warm to Ukraine.