Third world war: these are the terrible consequences that the rupture of the Nova Kakhovka dam can lead to

Between mutual accusations, June 6 it was reported that the Nova Kakhovka damone of the largest in Ukraine and which supplies water to the Crimean area, annexed by Russia since 2014, had major leaks endangering more than 16,000 people in the surrounding area.

Beyond the risk of flooding that could completely wipe out entire villages and wipe out hundreds of animals and plants from the torrent of the mighty Dnieper River, experts point out that the proximity of the Zaporizhia power station, which operates at nuclear energy, could be in imminent danger.

Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is the largest in Europe, and since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has been a matter of concern for international governments. Experts from the University of Southern California point out that if an accident occurs in this unit, the consequences could be more serious than those caused by Chernobyl.

The Nova Kakhovka dam is vital for its operation, as it part of its waters is used to cool the critical areas of the plantan uncontrolled leak could affect its proper functioning.

“Even if you turn off the reactors, the factory needs electricity to run the large cooling system to remove residual heat in the reactor, leading to what is known as a cold shutdown.

“Water circulation is always necessary to ensure that the burnt fuel does not overheat.. Burnt fuel tanks also need constant water circulation to keep them cool, and it takes several years before they can be put in dry drums,” says Najmedin Meshkati, safety expert at the California institution. .

The fighting near the Zaporizhia power plant multiplies the risk of accidental explosion, according to the expert, either because a projectile directly hits the installations and releases radioactive materials both nearby and in the environment, or for some human error induced by the stressful situation in which the employees of the factory work.

Who is guilty?

Although the Russian forces deny having been responsible for the breach of the dam, the actions carried out in the previous months by the occupying army let me doubt his word.

According to military analyst Benjamin Jensen, Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure are duly designed to undermine the morale of local forceswhile allowing them to risk less in frontal combat between militias.

“These attacks against civilian infrastructure are not random. In fact, they reflect cold calculation true to modern Russian military theory. For more than 20 years, Russian military strategy books have emphasized the need for non-contact attacks on critical infrastructure.

“These operations select targets initially for their psychological effect. They believe that by impacting key infrastructure and creating widespread power outages, as well as disruptions to communication routes and the movement of goods, it makes the population is less resistant to an attacking force“says Jensen.

Breaking the dam would be a strong argument on the part of Russia, in addition to create more concern among the public due to flooding and contamination of the Dnieper River due to leakage of oils and other materials from the dam.

What happens afterwards?

Experts disagree on the extent of the disaster created by the dam breach, but they do agree on one thing: the possible advance planned by the Ukrainian forces in their counterattack will be much slower.

Experts from the University of Birmingham in the UK point out that the advance of Ukrainian infantry in large areas of southern Ukraine will be much more complicated, while allows Russian forces to reinforce their defensive positions without loss of elements.

“The massive flooding it caused is equivalent to devastating large areas on both southern banks of the Dnieper around Crimea. This will make offensive operations of the Ukrainian infantry forces in this area difficult, most likely in the coming months, without weakening the Russian defensive lines“, underlines Stefan Wolff, a British analyst.

In recent days, Ukrainian forces had reported advances in certain areas occupied by the Russiansat the same time they subjected the Russian region of Belgorod to constant fire.