Despite geopolitical uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund raises its growth forecast for 2024.

Modest but solid growth. In its latest forecasts, published on Tuesday 16 April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.2% in 2024, a slight increase from its previous estimate in January (+ 0.1 percent). point) and October 2023 (+ 0.3 percentage point).

Thus, the world economy should experience an identical increase in growth in 2023, according to the Washington Institute. “amazing endurance” Faced with many shocks shaking the planet, such as Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, accentuation of geopolitical tensions or rising interest rates, that weigh on activity.

Uncertainty has increased since the first direct attack by Iran against Israel, on the night of Saturday April 13th through Sunday April 14th. The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gurrinchas, warned on Tuesday that the crisis in the Middle East raises the risk of disruptions in energy prices, which could hamper the decline in inflation, while noting that it was too early to gauge the outcome. . After a small decline on Monday, oil prices remained stable on Tuesday afternoon: the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent moved slightly below the threshold of 90 dollars (85 euros).

With the proliferation of crises related to global warming or geopolitical crises, the IMF invites countries to give themselves budgetary maneuvering space to better cope with them. However, their deficit was first widened in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, then in 2023 to combat inflation.

Lower prime rates

“In a world where supply shocks are increasingly common and financial needs are growing to guarantee safety nets, respond to the challenges of climate adaptation, digital transformation, energy security and defence, [consolidation budgétaire] should become a priority” writes Mr. Gurinchas in the preamble of IMF forecasts.

These deficits, which add to the debt burden, are costly for states, especially since interest rate hikes are aimed at curbing inflation. According to the Washington Institute, a policy of budget rebalancing is now possible now that the battle against rising prices has been won, at least in advanced economies. Inflation there fell to 2.3% in the final quarter of 2023, before the health crisis, after peaking at 9.5% a year earlier. And at this time “Economy records steady growth, defying warnings of stagflation and global recession”notes the IMF.