Pension reform: Olivier Dussop does not rule out the dissolution of the assembly in the event of a demand for censures

On Thursday, September 29, interviewed on LCI, Olivier Dussopt did not rule out that Emmanuel Macron decides to dissolve the National Assembly in the event of a knowledge vote against the government on the topic of pension reform. “If all the opposition unites to accept the censorship proposal and bring down the government, it will happen [le président de la République] They would defer to the French and the French would decide and say what they want the new majority to be.“, said the Minister of Labor.

This reform – which notably plans to gradually delay the retirement age to 65 in 2031 – is the most explosive file to launch a political comeback and Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term. The entity was also invited to the CGT, FSU and Solidaires’ call for this Thursday’s interprofessional mobilization, which initially focused on purchasing power.

The executive authority decided to postpone the issue, opening a new round of consultations with social partners and political forces in order to adopt a comprehensive bill. “Till Winter’s End”Elizabeth Bourne told Agence France-presse (AFP) on Thursday. That’s why it won’t be “forced passage” On this topic, as inside the majority they were afraid.

The application is planned for the summer of 2023

At the end of a dinner at the Elysee on Wednesday evening around Emmanuel Macron, with most of the executives gathered, he won. “Choice of dialogue and consultation”said the prime minister, detailing a relatively flexible schedule but also sticking to the president’s promise to implement the reform in the summer of 2023. The head of the government wants to present “Review” about this discussion with social partners and political forces “Before Christmas”The negotiations are almost three months away.

From this perspective Mr.^I Bourne asked Olivier Dussopt “Hiring next week” Negotiations with employers’ organizations and trade unions, as well “Parliamentary groups”. As such, the declaration of the Minister of Labor on the LCI may be aimed at securing the support of the right, as the party Les Républicains, in the event of the dissolution of the Assembly, risks losing seats.

M^I Bourne also said a little more about the proposed method, without making a final decision. “We are in favor of including this reform in the bill”he said. The method has been debated for weeks: Is a simple amendment to the Social Security Funding Bill (PLFSS) debated in the Assembly in October, the most controversial path and one that pointed to a MoDem ally? Pass corrective PLFSS in January? Or an ad hoc bill? So the latter option seems to be preferred at this stage, provided we manage to open up consultations, while the unions and much of the opposition opposes the substance of this reform.

Maneuvering room

A devolved bill poses a major risk to the executive, which has only a relative majority in the assembly. He could force him to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the adoption of the text without a vote, except for a motion of censure, but this leverage can only be used once during a parliamentary session.

On the other hand, it is possible to fire this weapon on budget texts that are PLFSS. In other words, the use of 49.3 in the PLFSS to pass pension reform will not prevent the government from using this section again to pass another bill in the parliamentary session. Thus, this option has the advantage for the executive to maintain its freedom in the particularly limited context of its relative majority in the assembly.