Monkeypox: The epidemic is on the decline, but the risk of a resurgence cannot be ruled out

Six months later, the monkeypox epidemic – which the World Health Organization now recommends “mpox” – appears to have almost disappeared in France. between 1^Eh And on November 15, only seven new cases were detected in the territory. In total, about 4100 Humans are diagnosed with this virus from the smallpox family. The vast majority of cases (97%) are adult men – 108 (2.6%) women and twelve (0.29%) children. No death on French soil should be mourned. The risk of a resurgence has not completely disappeared, as the virus continues to circulate in many countries around the world, especially in South America, where Brazil, in particular, is seeing a high plateau in its epidemic. More than 77,000 cases have been reported worldwide.

“In the medium and long term, the most likely scenario is the maintenance of a low-noise viral circulation on a European scale, which makes the hypothesis of complete elimination of simian virus infection unlikely and leads to the risk of an epidemic or even a seasonal spread in France.” and in Europe”writes the Committee on Monitoring and Prediction of Health Risks (Covars) in a second opinion published on Monday, November 28.

Vaccination of people at risk

Epidemic risk can come from several places: countries affected by the unprecedented epidemic of the past six months; African countries such as Cameroon, the Central African Republic or the Democratic Republic of the Congo where the virus is endemic and where the virus causing the current outbreak originated; And finally, the “zoonotic reservoir”, that is, human contamination by domestic or wild animals. “A recovery scenario is not out of the question, but it is not the preferred scenario”However, Simon Caushemes, a model at the Pasteur Institute and a member of Covars, is exasperating.

To prevent this catastrophic scenario, scientists call for full vaccination, with two doses, for all people at risk, that is, men who have sex with other men, and people in transmission with multiple sexual partners, people who prostitute themselves and them. Close surroundings. The population estimated by the highest health authority is about 300,000 people.

Of the 132,750 injections administered in France on November 17, we only know that about 20,000 There are second injections. “We didn’t use the same database linkage for monkeypox as we did for Covid, so we don’t know today how many people got two doses of the vaccine.”regrets Bridget Outran, an infectious disease specialist and president of Covars. Large-scale cohort studies are needed to assess population immunity, as the risk of re-introduction of the virus will depend on the level of vaccination. » Studies have shown that a single injection produces only low levels of neutralizing antibodies, which only increase after a second injection.