According to the Housing Credit Observatory/CSA, the average rate of real estate loans issued in August 2023 is 3.92%. Stratospheric growth since the figures were 1.85% in July 2022 and only 0.99% in December 2021.
It’s enough to make buyers sweat. Because the increase in the cost of credit automatically translates into a drop in the purchasing power of their real estate: a couple with an income of 4,200 euros can borrow 300,000 euros in 2021 (1% rate), only 249,000 euros in the first quarter of 2023 (3%). ) and 228,000 euros today (4%) according to the calculations of Vousfinancer.
The move continued in September: the scales rose 20 to 30 basis points, bringing the twenty-year average to 4%. Banks adjust their offer according to the conditions under which they refinance, competition and credit production goals. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) is engaged in a monetary tightening policy from July 2022, with the aim of returning inflation to the target level of 2%. Long-term work, after the price increase reached another 5.3 interest for more than one year in the euro area in July 2023, according to Eurostat.
Thus, the key ECB rates are increased from −0.50% in June 2022 to 4% after September 14, 2023. At the same time, ten-year interest rates are also on an upward slope, with the 10-year OAT, the benchmark government bond. In the French market, about 3.20%. The result: banks pass on the increase in their funding costs to the rates they charge their customers.
“Real estate loan rates may reach 5% in early 2024 before stabilizing”Cécile Roquelaure, director of research at Empruntis, appreciates. The level has never been reached since late 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis. Too bad for buyers, whose borrowing capacity will shrink even further.
But the tide is slowly starting to turn as banks are more willing to lend. “Since September, we have felt positive signals. Banks are starting to open the credit tap halfway, with a view to a wider return in 2024. Caroline Arnold, general manager of the broker Cafpi, notes. Then the rates will be higher, allowing them to improve their margins. An observation shared by Ludovic Huzieux, co-founder of Artémis Courtage: “From the beginning of September, banks that were absent from the market for a year began to return. »
Source: Le Monde
Ashley Fitzgerald is a financial whiz and a writer at Run Down Bulletin. With a passion for all things economy, she provides insightful and thought-provoking coverage of the latest economic trends and events.