SIf greenhouse gas emissions are declining in France, an extension of current trends will not lead to the 2050 carbon neutrality target. Even taking into account recent progress and the extension of existing policies, emissions will remain significantly higher than the important targets of the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) – the 2020 law that sets the emissions targets that France sets for itself over different time horizons. Therefore, important changes must be made now. But unfortunately they will be neither free nor spontaneous…
The amount of investment required can be calculated from a representation of the “physical” changes that must occur in each sector. Thus, in a study published in 2022, Rexecode calculated the cost of residential renovations, the additional cost of low-carbon cars and trucks. which should be bought, the cost of modernization of factories, etc. As a result, the total additional investment costs should be between 58 and 80 billion euros per year until 2030. This “decarbonisation budget” could also be significantly revised upwards in the coming months due to the alignment of the French target with the new European targets. . The currently revised SNBC should target a reduction of 55% in 2030 compared to 1990, compared to 40% currently.
The vast majority of reductions in France since 1990 have been achieved in the industrial sector. The decline was smaller in construction (heating and air conditioning of residential and commercial buildings) or agriculture. The transport sector is the only one where emissions have increased. If we want to accelerate reductions, we need to deal more honestly with emissions from buildings and transport, which more directly affect everyone.
According to our calculations, the distribution of effort will be about half between households and businesses. Households are mainly concerned about the cost of insulating their houses and the additional costs of replacing cars. Today, 75% of the housing stock has an energy label less than or equal to D, while the aim is to achieve class A or B for all. Similarly, electric vehicles today represent only 1% of the rolling stock. Although their share of new car sales is increasing dramatically (13% in 2022), we are far from the goal of 100% new low-carbon cars by 2035. Consequently, the transformations required for families represent an important step.
Source: Le Monde
Ashley Fitzgerald is a financial whiz and a writer at Run Down Bulletin. With a passion for all things economy, she provides insightful and thought-provoking coverage of the latest economic trends and events.