Oil: “rough pumping”

TSlippery slope oil. The sudden collapse of the Silicon Valley bank caused a shock. From the Californian beaches of Santa Monica to the tranquil shores of Lake Zurich, it was felt. Attention, sinking wave for Credit Suisse Group! The rate of the Swiss banking institution unexpectedly fell on the stock market on Wednesday, March 15, due to rumors of a risk of bankruptcy.

Faced with the urgency of the situation, the Swiss National Bank did not act in time to turn on the aid tap. Between Wednesday and the night of Thursday March 16, it lent it 50 billion Swiss francs (€50.7 billion) to boost liquidity. One hell of a lifesaver.

That somewhat calmed the wave of pessimism in markets, worried about the risk of contagion, after the fall of the US bank. This gloomy mood did not spare the price of black gold. The most pessimistic is expecting a drop in demand. On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in May fell to $71.67 (67.38 euros), the lowest in fifteen months, compared with almost $120 a year ago. Similarly, its US equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for April delivery, was trading at $65.65. Pump stroke on raw…

Limited recovery in China

Credit Suisse’s rescue operation pushed up the barrel of oil. But without euphoria. On Friday, March 17, the price of a barrel of Brent rose to 75 dollars. It also weakened the movement, which was strengthened by the decision taken on Thursday by eleven major American banks to help the First Republic.

Philippe Chalmin, a professor at the Dauphin University in Paris and co-director of CyclOpe, a commodities research center, is upbeat that his forecast for oil prices will be around $70 a barrel by the end of the first semester. The moment is quite reliable. Outside of the banker’s thrill episode, it parries the course “25 to 30 dollars discount on Russian oil, which lowers prices”. He also believes that the recovery of Chinese imports after the end of the Zero Covid strategy remains limited.

Finally, he mentions the drop in gas prices. The European natural gas benchmark was trading at 44 euros per megawatt hour in Amsterdam on Friday, compared with 130 euros posted a year ago. A rise in the mercury, along with the arrival of spring, will renew the energy market.